In our post of 23Sep13, we expected Copper Futures (symbol: HG) to continue trading in the range of $2.95 – 3.45/lb, until that time when it would not do so. That time is likely upon us, and the likely breakout is down. (Reference: Copper Consolidation “Getting Long in the Tooth”, 23Sep13, http://wp.me/p3SbOG-7B).
A breakout to the downside would be defined as trade below the $2.95 level. The first level of major support lies at the $2.72 and $2.38 levels. The next level of major support lies much lower at the $1.41 and $1.24 levels. Sounds like a long way to go, however prices visited $1.25 in Dec08 and $0.60 in Nov01, both periods notable for economic recession.
Alternatively, a breakout above $3.40 would negate the view of a breakdown in price.
Murphy & Company’s position models currently have no position in Copper Futures.
#Copper, #Futures, #Metals