The Big Picture … In Futures

Sometimes it just makes sense to step back and take a look at the bigger picture. If you’ve read  The Trend Beacon your familiar with  our proprietary Overbought vs Oversold Indicator which is applied to fifteen specific futures contracts. This week we take a snapshot of these indicators as of 27Feb15, placing them side-by-side on the same chart.

OBvOS Summary, 27Feb15

The Buy and Sell Zones are statistically computed and are intended to convey an opportunity to enter or exit a position or sector. Several conclusions can be drawn from this Big Picture view:

  • Both the metals and agricultural sectors are centrally located on the chart, representing transition. In general, neither sector is strongly oriented for position entry or exit.
  • The US Dollar Index is solidly in the Sell Zone, representing an opportunity to exit or reduce a long position.
  • The energy complex, especially Crude Oil, is in or near the Buy Zone. This represents an opportunity to increase a long position OR exit or reduce a short position.
  • The S&P 500 Index has been hovering just below the Sell Zone, and has consistently held this location on the chart for the last nine months. This is an unusual and unprecedented profile for any futures contract for as long as we have been tracking our proprietary indicator. The extended consolidation of this indicator leaves us to believe the breakout, when it does occur, could be extremely volatile.

Checkout  The Commodity Beacon today.

Murphy & Co’s position models have recommended positions in place for some of the futures contracts mentioned above.  To learn more about Murphy & Co’s position models, visit

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